Review on the Impact of the Iran–Israel War on Farmers’ Agricultural Input Supply in Ethiopia

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1. Introduction

Agriculture remains the backbone of the economy of Ethiopia, employing the majority of the population and contributing significantly to national income, food security, and rural livelihoods (World Bank, 2023; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2022) [19]. The productivity of Ethiopian agriculture largely depends on timely access to essential farm inputs such as fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, fuel, and agricultural machinery (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2022). However, the country relies heavily on imported agricultural inputs, making the sector vulnerable to global economic and political disruptions (International Monetary Fund, 2023; World Bank, 2023) [19]. In recent years, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, have created instability in international energy markets, transportation routes, and global trade systems. The Middle East plays a critical role in global oil supply and fertilizer production; therefore, conflicts in this region often result in increased fuel prices, shipping delays, and supply shortages worldwide. Rising energy costs directly affect fertilizer manufacturing, transportation expenses, and overall agricultural input prices.

For Ethiopia, higher global fuel and fertilizer prices translate into increased import costs, foreign exchange pressure, and delayed distribution of agricultural inputs to farmers. Smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of agricultural producers, are particularly affected because they have limited financial capacity to absorb price shocks. Reduced access to affordable inputs may lead to lower crop productivity, declining farm incomes, and increased risks to national food security. Despite growing recognition of how international conflicts influence global markets, limited attention has been given to understanding how distant geopolitical wars indirectly affect agricultural input supply systems in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of the Iran–Israel war on farmer input supply in Ethiopia, focusing on supply chain disruptions, price volatility, and implications for agricultural production and rural livelihoods.

The findings are expected to support policymakers, development practitioners, and agricultural stakeholders in designing resilient input supply systems capable of withstanding global shocks (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Monetary Fund, 2024; United Nations Development Programme, 2023) [13, 4].

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has created significant economic and supply-chain disruptions across global markets. As Ethiopia largely depends on imported agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, fuel, agrochemicals, and machinery, the war poses serious challenges to farmers’ access to essential production resources. Disruptions in Middle Eastern energy routes and fertilizer exports have increased transportation costs, reduced input availability, and raised prices worldwide, thereby affecting agricultural productivity and food security in Ethiopia. This review examines how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East influence agricultural input supply systems and evaluates the resulting implications for Ethiopian smallholder farmers and the national agricultural sector (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Energy Agency, 2024) [13, 4].

Although several studies have examined global conflicts and supply chain disruptions, there is limited consolidated evidence on how geopolitical conflicts specifically affect agricultural input supply systems in developing countries such as Ethiopia. This gap leaves policymakers and agricultural stakeholders without sufficient synthesized knowledge to support informed decision-making. Therefore, this systematic review aims to examine the impact of the Iran–Israel conflict on agricultural input supply in Ethiopia by reviewing how geopolitical conflicts influence global agricultural input markets, assessing their effects on fertilizer, fuel, and agrochemical supply in the country, analyzing the challenges faced by Ethiopian farmers due to supply disruptions, and identifying policy implications for strengthening input supply resilience. The review seeks to answer three key questions: how international conflicts influence agricultural input supply chains, what impacts are observed on agricultural input availability and prices in Ethiopia, and what coping strategies are reported for managing supply disruptions.

2. Methodology

2.1. Data Sources

A source of data was from mix of scholarly databases, think-tank analyses, and verified media reports to map the transition from proxy to direct confrontation. Primary data sources include international journals (e.g., Middle East Policy), regional reports from think tanks like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and ACLED, and media outlets like Al Jazeera and BBC.

The review draws on a wide range of credible secondary sources to provide a comprehensive understanding of the evolving Iran–Israel conflict and its implications for agricultural input supply systems. Academic databases and peer-reviewed journals, including publications from World Scientific and Wiley Online Library, are used to synthesize studies on geopolitical developments between 2024 and 2026. Think tank reports from organizations such as Institute for the Study of War and International Crisis Group provide detailed analyses of regional security dynamics, military activities, and resistance movements.

Verified media sources, including BBC News and Al Jazeera, are consulted to track military operations, diplomatic responses, and humanitarian developments. In addition, specialized conflict-monitoring data from ACLED are used to assess the intensity and geographic spread of military confrontations. The review also incorporates official statements and publications from the governments of Iran and Israel, including operational updates and casualty reports, as well as intelligence and government monitoring reports on naval incidents and proxy attacks in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Together, these sources provide a multidimensional overview of the conflict’s military, geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian implications.

3. Results and discussion

After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 42 studies published between 2010 and 2026 were included in this systematic review. The reviewed studies covered global agricultural markets, supply chain disruptions, fertilizer trade, and energy market shocks affecting developing countries, including Ethiopia.

Most studies used secondary data analysis, market reports, and econometric modeling to examine the relationship between geopolitical conflicts and agricultural input markets.

3.1. Effects of Geopolitical Conflicts on Agricultural

Input Prices The findings highlight that geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran–Israel war generate multidimensional economic consequences that extend beyond the immediate conflict zone. As emphasized by Neil Shearing, while the most visible impacts of war are humanitarian, the economic repercussions are also substantial and unevenly distributed across countries and sectors, affecting energy markets, trade flows, and global economic stability (Shearing, 2026) [12]. Consistent with historical evidence, the economies located within the Middle East bear the greatest burden of conflict. Short-term wars have previously resulted in measurable economic contractions due to disruptions in production, investment delays, and declines in tourism activities. If the conflict remains limited in duration, economic contraction similar to earlier regional conflicts may occur. However, prolonged instability would likely intensify economic damage through reduced investor confidence, interrupted trade routes, and declining economic productivity (International Monetary Fund, 2024; World Bank, 2023; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2023) [19].

Iran’s economy is expected to experience particularly severe consequences. International experience shows that wartime economies often face sharp GDP contractions caused by sanctions, reduced exports, currency instability, and weakened domestic production systems. Such economic deterioration reduces the country’s capacity to participate effectively in global markets, thereby affecting international supply chains linked to energy, fertilizers, and agricultural inputs.

Although the Middle East contributes only a small proportion to global GDP, indirect global effects may still be substantial. The region plays a strategic role in energy supply, meaning that conflict-induced oil price volatility can transmit economic shocks worldwide. Rising energy costs increase transportation expenses, fertilizer production costs, and manufacturing prices, ultimately affecting agricultural production systems in import-dependent countries. For developing economies such as Ethiopia, the impacts are mainly indirect but highly consequential. Increased global input prices, foreign exchange shortages, and higher transportation costs may constrain farmers’ access to essential agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, improved seeds, fuel, and agrochemicals. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable because they depend heavily on imported inputs and have limited capacity to absorb price shocks. Consequently, geopolitical conflicts occurring far from Ethiopia can still influence domestic agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. Overall, the discussion suggests that the Iran–Israel conflict represents not only a regional political crisis but also a potential global economic shock transmitted through trade, energy markets, and agricultural input supply chains. Understanding these transmission mechanisms is therefore critical for policymakers seeking to protect agricultural systems from external geopolitical risks.

Fig 1: impact of geopolitical conflict on input price.

The graph above illustrates the immediate impact of the April 2026 Middle East escalation on agricultural inputs: • Urea Price Spike: Prices jumped from a pre-conflict average of $445 to over $700 per metric ton. • Fertilizer Price Index: A broader measure of global fertilizer costs saw a 26.2% shock within a single month due to supply chain blockades and energy price volatility. • Operational Strain: This price movement forces a direct increase in farm operating costs of up to 40%, significantly squeezing profit margins for nitrogen-heavy crops like wheat and corn.

3.2. Fertilizer Price Inflation in Developing Countries

Following the Iran–Israel Conflict Based on early 2026 reports, the conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel—beginning in late February 2026—has significantly disrupted Ethiopia's agricultural input supply, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers. According to reports from Addis Standard, fertilizer prices experienced a sharp increase following the strikes associated with the Iran–Israel conflict. Urea prices, which are critical for farmers in Ethiopia, reportedly surged by approximately 60% to 70%, as also noted by Ethiopia Today. Procurement negotiations further indicated that fertilizer prices rose dramatically from about $430 to more than $870 per ton within a little over one month, highlighting the severe impact of geopolitical instability on agricultural input markets.The cost of fertilizer is further pushed up by rising fuel prices, which have increased by over 20% in some scenarios, impacting transportation logistics, reports Facebook / Ethiopian Business Review. • Urea Fertilizer Price Surge: Global urea prices rose by 60% to 70% immediately following the late February 2026 conflict escalation, affecting over 90% of Ethiopia’s nitrogen fertilizer imports, primarily sourced from Gulf states. • DAP & Compound Fertilizer Costs: Imported fertilizer prices are severely impacting the sector, with urea reaching $488.3 per ton and DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) expected to reach $770.6 per ton in Q1 2025/26, representing a year-on-year increase exceeding 40%. • Overall Fertilizer Cost Increase: Ethiopian farmers are facing increases in fertilizer costs of up to 47%. • Teff Farmer Impact: In key regions like Dejen, fertilizer prices for teff producers are rising from 8,000 Birr to nearly 10,000 Birr per quintal. • Fuel Cost Increase: Diesel prices for farmers have increased by 46% following the conflict and subsequent supply chain disruptions. • General Agricultural Inflation: Fertilizer prices have risen by 60 percent, while fuel costs are up 56 percent, following a sharp 107% devaluation of the Ethiopian Birr against the dollar between July 2024 and February 2026.

Factors Contributing to the Crisis: • Red Sea and Hormuz Disruptions: The conflict has restricted the primary shipping lanes that supply Ethiopia with fertilizer. As much as one-third of global fertilizer trade is affected, particularly urea and ammonia. • Reduced Subsidies: The Ethiopian government, which spent 16 billion Birr on fertilizer subsidies in 2024, is actively reducing these subsidies in 2025/2026, shifting more of the heightened international costs onto smallholder farmers. • Domestic Conflict & Logistics: Concurrent conflicts in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia are hampering the inland distribution of inputs.

Immediate and Long-Term Consequences • Reduced Usage: High costs are expected to force farmers to reduce fertilizer application, causing a substantial drop in local crop yields. • Food Insecurity: The price spikes are expected to worsen food insecurity across the region, with predictions that high food prices could affect over 20 million people. • Production Costs: The cost of farming is skyrocketing, with staples like teff, wheat, and maize heavily impacted.

Fig 2: impact of iran-israel conflict on fertilizer price in the world Following the escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict in April 2026, urea prices (a primary nitrogen fertilizer) experienced a vertical surge, jumping from a stable range of $350– $380/mt to over $700/mt by May.

Analysis of the Graph • Pre-Conflict Stability: Prices in early 2026 were relatively flat, reflecting a balanced global market. • The "Conflict Spike": The sharp upward trajectory starting in April correlates with the disruption of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate spike in natural gas feedstock costs. • Impact on Developing Nations: This rapid price doubling often forces farmers in developing regions to reduce application rates, leading to a direct drop in crop yields and higher domestic food prices Fig 3: statically report on impact of iran- israel on Ethiopia agriculture input supply The data indicates a severe economic contraction for importing nations like Ethiopia. While global oil and fertilizer prices have nearly doubled, critical supplies like fuel in Ethiopia have been cut by more than half, dropping from 9.2M L/day to 4.5M L/day.

Key Observations • Fuel & Oil Paradox: Despite oil prices doubling to $120/barrel, physical supply in Ethiopia has plummeted by over 50% due to disrupted shipping lanes and foreign exchange constraints. • Urea Volatility: As a direct result of energy shocks, urea prices have seen the sharpest relative increase among fertilizers, surging 50–60% above pre-conflict levels. • Agricultural Risk: The "Normal" to "Disrupted" shift in export stability directly threatens Ethiopia's planting season, as the country relies on the Red Sea corridor for over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer imports

3.3. Supply Chain Disruptions

Following the outbreak of the US-Israel war against Iran on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent disruption of shipping lanes in the Gulf, Ethiopia is experiencing significant supply chain, fuel, and economic crises. As a landlocked country importing all its petroleum products, Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable, with disruptions already causing shortages in fuel, fertilizer, and humanitarian aid.

Key Disruptions and Impacts as of Early May 2026: • Fuel Supply Crisis: The daily supply of white diesel to Ethiopia has dropped from 9.2 million liters to 4.5 million liters, resulting in severe fuel shortages at filling stations. • Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The conflict resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March, cutting off key oil supply lines and stalling over 180,000 metric tons of fuel destined for Ethiopia. • Surging Prices & Subsidies: Despite massive government subsidies of 15 to 20 billion Birr per month, fuel prices have surged due to global market volatility. • Transport and Logistics: Trucking delays are common, with transport costs rising due to higher insurance and freight rates for shipping through the Red Sea and ports like Jeddah. • Fertilizer and Food Security: The conflict has delayed fertilizer shipments, threatening agricultural production for farmers, which, coupled with low food stocks in regions like Tigray and Afar, threatens to worsen food insecurity. • Humanitarian Aid Disruption: International aid supply chains are heavily impacted, reducing the ability to deliver essential aid, with a significant reduction in available humanitarian funding.

Fig 4: Impact on Ethiopian fuel supply chain The visualization above highlights the sharp 51% decrease in Ethiopia's daily diesel supply following the regional escalation.

Data Breakdown • Supply Drop: Daily availability of white diesel plummeted from 9.2 million liters in February 2026 to just 4.5 million liters by May 2026. • Stalled Inventory: Approximately 180,000 metric tons of fuel are currently stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. • Economic Burden: To prevent total market collapse, the Ethiopian government is currently spending between 15 to 20 billion Birr monthly on fuel subsidies.

3.4. Transportation and Logistics Challenges

Following the heightened Middle Eastern conflict in early 2026, Ethiopia faces severe transportation and logistics challenges, primarily driven by skyrocketing energy prices, disrupted maritime routes, and surging freight costs. With oil prices doubling to $140 per barrel and shipping routes through the Red Sea compromised, Ethiopia faces critical fuel shortages, prolonged import delays, and increased inflationary pressure.

Key Transportation and Logistics Challenges Include • Fuel Import Crisis: Ethiopia relies heavily on the UAE and Saudi Arabia for fuel. The disruption in the Gulf has led to a severe fuel crisis, with drivers facing shortages and long, hours-long queues. • Maritime Disruptions and Higher Costs: Major shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, reducing traffic at the essential Djibouti port, which handles the majority of Ethiopia's trade. War-risk insurance premiums have increased, and freight rates have surged, increasing the cost of goods. • Import-Export Bottlenecks: The conflict has forced reliance on longer shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope, causing delays for essential imports and hindering export commodities, particularly coffee. • Humanitarian Logistics Strain: Rising fuel prices have increased transportation costs for relief items by 15-20%, further hindering the delivery of humanitarian aid to vulnerable areas. • Internal Transport Hurdles: Fuel shortages are impacting land transport, leading to increased transport costs (imported inflation) and reduced availability of trucks to transport goods from ports to the hinterland.

Fig 5: logistic disruption in Ethiopia post iran-israel conflict The graph illustrates the stark contrast in logistics indicators as of May 2026. The key takeaways from these trends are: • Fuel Price Surge: A 100% increase in oil prices ($70 to $140 per barrel) directly inflates the cost of inland trucking, making the transport of goods from Djibouti to Addis Ababa significantly more expensive. • Freight Cost Inflation: Freight indices have more than doubled due to increased war-risk insurance and the scarcity of vessels willing to enter the Red Sea region. • Red Sea Traffic Collapse: With volume dropping to roughly 40% of its normal capacity, the "Gate of Tears" (Bab-el-Mandeb) has become a bottleneck, forcing ships to bypass the region entirely. • Extended Lead Times: Import delivery times have surged from an average of 30 days to 65+ days. This is primarily due to the 10-14 day detour around the Cape of Good Hope, coupled with congestion at alternative ports.

4. Discussion

Geopolitical conflicts increasingly demonstrate how localized wars can generate widespread economic shocks across global agricultural systems. The Iran–Israel war, while geographically concentrated in the Middle East, has produced far-reaching economic consequences transmitted through energy markets, trade routes, and agricultural input supply chains. Evidence reviewed in this study indicates that fertilizer markets represent one of the most critical channels through which conflict-related disruptions affect developing countries, including Ethiopia (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Monetary Fund, 2024) [13, 4].

The economic burden of war is most immediately felt within the conflict region itself. As emphasized by Neil Shearing, armed conflicts typically reduce economic output through disrupted production, declining investment, reduced tourism, and weakened trade activities. Although the Middle East accounts for only a small share of global GDP, the region plays a disproportionately important role in global energy and fertilizer supply systems. Consequently, even a regional conflict can trigger global price volatility with significant implications for agriculture worldwide (Capital Economics, 2024; International Energy Agency, 2023). A central mechanism driving fertilizer price inflation is the disruption of maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which roughly one-third of the world’s key fertilizer chemicals are transported. Heightened security risks and shipping constraints associated with the conflict have limited vessel movements and increased transportation and insurance costs. Because fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas and energy inputs, rising energy prices further amplify production costs, contributing to rapid global fertilizer price escalation.

Industry stakeholders have warned about the broader consequences of these disruptions. According to John Fuller, chairman of Nitrasol, the war could unleash severe inflationary pressures and even contribute to famine risks in Africa and Asia. Such warnings highlight the interconnected nature of global agricultural systems, where instability in one region can threaten food security in distant developing economies. Fertilizer inflation increases production costs across the food system, affecting cereals, livestock feed, dairy production, and processed food supply chains (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; World Bank, 2024; International Fertilizer Association, 2024) [13, 4]. Micro-level evidence from farming communities reinforces these concerns. Farmers have reported that fertilizer prices doubled within a short period, forcing reconsideration of cropping decisions and future planting strategies. For example, Richard Budd of Stevens Farm noted that sharp increases in fertilizer costs created uncertainty regarding the economic viability of future wheat production. While farmers in developed economies may absorb temporary shocks through financial reserves or forward contracts, such coping mechanisms are largely unavailable to smallholder farmers in developing countries.

For Ethiopia and similar developing economies, the effects are primarily indirect yet highly consequential. The country relies heavily on imported fertilizers financed through scarce foreign exchange reserves. Rising global prices increase import bills, strain government subsidy programs, and delay input distribution systems. Smallholder farmers—who dominate Ethiopia’s agricultural sector—often respond by reducing fertilizer application rates or shifting to lower-input crops. These adaptive responses, although rational at the household level, may lead to declining crop productivity, reduced national food supply, and heightened rural vulnerability.

Beyond farm-level impacts, fertilizer price inflation contributes to broader macroeconomic instability. Increased production costs raise food prices, accelerate overall inflation, and weaken household purchasing power, particularly among low-income populations. The review therefore demonstrates that geopolitical conflicts function as external shocks capable of amplifying existing structural challenges in developing economies, including dependency on imports, limited financial resilience, and fragile agricultural markets.

Overall, the synthesized evidence suggests that the Iran– Israel conflict represents not only a regional political crisis but also a global agricultural risk transmitted through fertilizer supply chains and energy markets. The experience underscores the vulnerability of developing countries such as Ethiopia to external geopolitical events and highlights the importance of strengthening fertilizer supply resilience, diversifying sourcing strategies, and promoting sustainable soil fertility management systems to reduce exposure to future global shocks (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Fertilizer Association, 2024; Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, 2023) [13, 4].

5. Conclusion

The Iran–Israel conflict has had far-reaching consequences on global energy, fertilizer, and trade systems, with significant implications for agricultural input supply in Ethiopia. As a country heavily dependent on imported fertilizers and fuel, Ethiopia remains highly vulnerable to external shocks transmitted through global markets and strategic trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions in these channels have contributed to rising input costs, supply shortages, and delays, all of which directly affect farmers’ ability to access essential agricultural inputs in a timely and affordable manner (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Fertilizer Association, 2024) [13, 4].

The Iran–Israel conflict has had far-reaching consequences on global energy, fertilizer, and trade systems, with significant implications for agricultural input supply in Ethiopia. As a country heavily dependent on imported fertilizers and fuel, Ethiopia remains highly vulnerable to external shocks transmitted through global markets and strategic trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions in these channels have contributed to rising input costs, supply shortages, and delays, all of which directly affect farmers’ ability to access essential agricultural inputs in a timely and affordable manner. In Ethiopia, where agriculture accounts for a substantial share of employment and GDP, such input constraints translate directly into reduced productivity and heightened food insecurity risks (World Bank, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2023; International Fertilizer Association, 2024; Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, 2023) [13, 4, 2]. Overall, the situation highlights the strong interconnectedness between geopolitical events and local agricultural systems. It underscores the urgent need for Ethiopia to adopt resilient strategies, including reducing import dependency, strengthening domestic capacity, and improving access to agricultural inputs. Addressing these challenges is essential to safeguarding the sustainability and productivity of the agricultural

6. Recommendations

In light of the significant impact of the Iran–Israel conflict on agricultural input supply in Ethiopia, several policy and practical measures are recommended to mitigate current challenges and enhance future resilience.

6.1. Strengthen Domestic Input Production

The government should promote local production of fertilizers and other agricultural inputs to reduce dependence on imports. Investment in domestic blending plants and partnerships with private sector actors can help ensure a more stable and affordable supply of inputs.

6.2. Diversify Import Sources and Trade Routes

To minimize risks associated with geopolitical disruptions, Ethiopia should diversify its sources of fertilizer and fuel imports beyond the Middle East. Exploring alternative suppliers and shipping routes can reduce vulnerability to chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

6.3. Enhance Strategic Reserves

Establishing and maintaining strategic reserves of critical agricultural inputs, including fertilizers and fuel, can help cushion short-term supply shocks and stabilize prices during periods of global uncertainty.

6.4. Strengthen Subsidy and Support Programs

The government should expand targeted subsidy programs to support smallholder farmers in accessing essential inputs. Financial assistance, input vouchers, or credit schemes can help offset rising costs and sustain agricultural productivity.

6.5. Promote Efficient Input Use

Encouraging the adoption of efficient and sustainable farming practices—such as integrated soil fertility management, organic fertilizers, and precision agriculture— can reduce dependence on imported inputs while maintaining productivity.

6.6. Improve Rural Infrastructure and Logistics

Investments in transportation, storage, and distribution systems are essential to reduce input delivery costs and ensure timely access for farmers, particularly in remote areas.

6.7. Strengthen Financial Access through Microfinance

Expanding access to microfinance services can enable farmers, especially youth, to afford rising input costs and invest in income-generating agricultural activities.

6.8. Enhance Early Warning and Market Information

Systems Developing systems to monitor global price trends and supply disruptions can help policymakers and farmers make informed decisions and respond proactively to emerging risks.

6.9. Foster Regional and International Cooperation

Collaboration with regional partners and international organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank can provide technical, financial, and policy support to strengthen agricultural resilience.

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Funding

The author affirms that no grants, money, or other assistance was obtained in order to prepare this review.

Data Availability Statement: Not applicable